The first word you learn in Kenya is most likely "boda boda". Walking on the street, the locals will always enthusiastically shout "boda boda" to you, they are not greeting you, but to invite you to ride on his motorcycle. In Kenya, there are about 3 million such motorcycles running through the streets; and an "electric revolution" is quietly taking place here.

Motorcycles are now a necessity for traveling

"Boda boda" is a dialect originating from East Africa, and was included as an English term in the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary 9th edition in 2017, meaning, "a motorcycle or bicycle that can carry passengers or goods, often used as a cab."

The market demand for motorcycles is naturally born here at the pre-urbanization stage of a country's development, where their flexibility, convenience and cheapness are favored by many. According to the Kenya Automotive Sector Report by KAM, Kenya Association of Manufacters, the motorcycle market has the following key drivers for growth: 1) Need for sustainable personal mobility in densely populated countries; 2) Lack of efficient public transport system in emerging markets such as Kenya to increase the adoption of motorcycle as alternative means of transport; 3) Inadequate road infrastructure and chronic traffic congestion to spurdemand growth; 4) Development of motorcycle lane to encourage demand; 5) Rise in number of women motorists to fuel a boom of the market.

The main application scenarios for motorcycles in Kenya are generally courier and takeaway deliveries, and passenger transportation. Uber, for example, offers "boda" transportation in Kenya, and EqualOcean asked Cathy, an intern at the United Nations in Kenya, "It's almost half the price of a regular uber, but I don't usually go for that," she said. She has her own concerns: "It's hard to guarantee safety, they often speed, run red lights, and don't wear helmets, so I wouldn't consider taking one unless it's for a very short distance."

According to the Kenyan Minister of Transportation, there are currently about 3 million motorcycle riders, and the United Nations estimates that about 5 million people benefit from their income. The average age of Kenyan motorcyclists is currently between 18 and 35 years old, and motorcycles have become an important means of employment for African youth. According to the Kenya Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the number of registered motorcycles in Kenya grew by 233% between 2011 and 2019, with year-on-year growth rates consistently around 15%, and the average annual market demand for motorcycles in Kenya is around 200,000 units.

However, many of the local motorcycles are old and poorly maintained, with high levels of exhaust pollution, and many even use diesel fuel. According to the Clean Air Fund, road traffic emissions in Nairobi account for 20% of the city's greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of its air pollution.

The "Green Revolution" for Electric Motorcycles

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, Africa accounts for only 2 to 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, but it is far more affected by climate change. The Kenyan government launched a nationwide "e-mobility" program in September 2023 to develop electric motorcycles, electric tricycles and electric cars as a key to greening transportation and reducing air pollution. Supporting the development of the electric motorcycle industry is an important part of this program, and the Kenyan government has set the goal of realizing more than 200,000 electric motorcycles by the end of 2024.

It's not just Kenya, but a large number of electric motorcycle startups have sprung up with roots in Africa itself. Headliners include Roam, Spiro, Ampersand and others, while other startups include ARC Ride, Zembo, Kiri EV, Arc Ride, Kofa, Ecobodaa, Stimaboda, REM and others.

Spiro was established in Benin in 2019 and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China's Haowan New Energy Technology Company in June 2023, with plans to sell 500,000 electric motorcycles in Africa in five years, totaling as much as US$1 billion, and the business will cover emerging African markets such as Kenya and Uganda. Founded in 2017, Roam announced this year that it had completed $24 million in Series A financing, with investors including the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Equator Africa, a venture capital fund for climate technology opportunities in Africa, At One Ventures, TES Ventures, and others.2023 In August 2023, Uber officially launched its first electric mobility product in Kenya, called Electric Boda. One year after its launch, Uber reported a 94% increase in trips and an 81% increase in active driver registrations for Electric Boda, helping drivers save 30-35% on total costs, with fuel costs being the largest.

Chinese companies also tested the Kenyan electric motorcycle early. In March 2021, the United Nations Environment Programme launched a pilot electric mobility project in Kenya, with 49 electric motorcycles provided by TAILG serving as the project's demonstration vehicles. These electric motorcycles will be tested in four locations in Kenya, and the project is expected to be promoted in other African countries afterwards.

Risks and Opportunities

Although the Kenyan government has a good vision, whether the market can buy remains to be considered.

First, the power supply problem. Kenya's power infrastructure and supply is unstable, Cathy said that there are often blackouts, and many families have solar lights that need to be charged during the day in order to cope with blackouts at night. As you can imagine, electric motorcycles that need to be charged are bound to have many obstacles to their use and operation and maintenance. "When this country doesn't need to worry about infrastructure anymore, then we'll think about electricity-related things."

The Rest of World reported in February that EV penetration in Africa could be hampered by inadequate electricity supply and the huge capital costs of the infrastructure needed for battery stations. The Shell Foundation estimates that at least $3.5 billion will be needed by 2030 to fund the costs associated with making electric motorcycles work in Africa.

Secondly, there is theft prevention to consider. EqualOcean asked Mr. Chen, who has lived in Kenya for ten years, about the high risk of theft of the vehicles and batteries. He's in the communications industry and "over here fiber optic cables and cables are stolen all the time, so you can imagine something like an electric motorcycle."

Third, the price is high. There is only one merchant called "Hanlin" that has listed electric bicycles for sale, and this store is owned by a Chinese businessman. The cheapest model is priced at 66,000 Kenyan shillings (approximately equivalent to 3,700 RMB), which is several times the price in China.

Fourthly, there is a lack of government credibility. A lot of policies are well formulated, but at the level of implementation they can be greatly compromised, a consensus reached by those who have lived in Kenya for a long time. Although the government has implemented a green energy program, it is doubtful how vigorously it will be implemented and whether it will be sustained in the long term.

There are still opportunities behind the risk, which does not mean that the electric motorcycle completely no market.

One highly appealing aspect of electric motorcycles is that they significantly reduce the operating costs for users. According to the information displayed on Roam's official website, if you choose their products, the average cost per kilometer is greatly reduced compared to using a fuel-powered vehicle: fossil fuels cost $0.288/10km, while electricity only costs $0.08/10km, a reduction of 68%. Similarly, maintenance costs and carbon emissions are also reduced.

Regarding the high cost of purchase, a number of companies have already come up with solutions. Roam, for example, offers users financial services as well, with the option of paying in installments, as well as a one-stop shopping option for amenities. Many brands have made localized adjustments, such as Ecobodda, which offers a power-swapping service where the seller retains ownership of the batteries and hundreds of switching stations are set up in the capital city of Nairobi.

A Kenyan e-commerce practitioner told EqualOcean that he remains optimistic about this overall. Many countries in Africa are leapfrogging in technological development, for example, 2G leapfrogging to 4G, with 3G being a simple transition; the Internet is rapidly moving from the PC era to the mobile Internet era. Developing countries' own technology development internal drive is insufficient, it is easy to receive the impact of the entry of new external technology, resulting in this disconnected development. "It is important to look at the problem with a developmental perspective, and the development of electric motors in Kenya could also be a leap forward." Behind this leap forward, there is a need for capital support, massive laying of mobile power exchange stations, charging piles and so on, to improve the supporting facilities so that consumers do not have to worry.

He believes that do not hope to rely on the government to promote, "It is not the government that will change Africa, but the entrepreneurs."